Beautiful physicist says rub Er law will break down inside 10 years

Beijing time on May 3 before dawn message, according to report of ComputerWorld of American IT website, a famous academic physicist says, the key in computer industry is academic " rub Er is mensurable " (Moore's Law) is about to break down.

Newyork city establishs professor of university theory physics to add Lai Dao t mobile prepaid cards xiong (Michio Kaku) says when the video that accepts BigThink.com website is interviewed, this long law that continued 47 years is already numbered, this may cause an effect to the evolution of computer processor.

modern dining chairsAdd Lai Daoxiong to express when accepting video to interview, scientist should the latent capa the best selling canon ef 15mm city that can continue to dig silicon component, be in thereby maintain in time in the near future rub the vitality of Er law; But the technology waits in 3D chip after extinct also latent capacity, also will reach the limit so.

"In about 10 years of time, we will see rub Er breaks down mensurably. " add Lai Daoxiong say. "In fact, we had seen rub Er law is in decelerate, operation ability cannot have used silicon technology of the standard to maintain its rapid exponential level growth. " a lot of scientists before following this are same, add Lai Daoxiong to also express recently, two main problems will be brought about rub Er law derails, that is high temperature and leak. "Why do this say silicon times will move toward finished reason finally be in namely. " his say.

Intel (small gain) · of associated author Gordon rub Er (Gordon Moore) put forward 1965 rub the theory of Er law. According to this kind of theory, the transistor amount on chip is in one can grow in bienniall free memory card digital cameras y time about times, and should accomplish this not t the most popular canon ef 15mm o pay high cost.

With about rub Er is mensurable will photograph of terminative original expect time is compared, add Lai Daoxiong anticipate after procrastinating for a long time. Old since, many economist and industry analyst are in all the time forecast rub Er law will die; And old since, investigator is advancing technical development all the time, improve chip structure and component, let this law live to be thereby now.

E.g. , summer 2008, the investigator of university of Er of Montreal wheat auspicious releases a report to say, they had discovered a kind of new material position, can lengthen greatly rub the time puttin the most popular memory laptop toshiba g add of Er law. These investigator are used 100 times lower than interstellar space temperature, found crystal of electron of a kind of accurate 3D, physical ability of this kind of brilliant makes its use quanta physics make sma most popular selling brooch pins ller and smaller computer chip.

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Prolong life

Last year in the winter, come from university of Yu Maiji Er and United States the scientific group of national laboratory releases Sangdiya the report says, they had made a kind most diminutive electron integra memory laptop toshiba ted circuit, it is body thereby smaller, function is more powerful mobile equipment levelled road. Industry analyst points out quickly, this kind of discovery general can be lengthened rub the life of Er law.

Moor Strategies of IT survey firm&Insight the most popular scooby costume analyst Petrick Maerhaide (Patrick Moorhead) says: "Go 20 years in time each are concerned rub the hearsay that Er law will die is having first-rate data support, but industry of science and technology already was in go up somehow the way that found to continue. Nevertheless, be designed in chip and make after reaching molecular level, want to continue to step down the cost that go to become more exalted really, and also more accomplish hard. And also more accomplish hard..

But the scientist is devoting oneself to to maintain rub the developmental pace that Er place forecasts, among them task of a research is photoelectricity, namely data is transmitted through wire of copper of smooth and rather than. In addition, mixture system of 3D component and CPU/GPU also is one of direction of research. The scientist still delivers the view to beyond silicon technology, put the emphasis on quanta computation and molecular computer. Add Lai Daoxiong to think, molecular computer has an outlook very much, but quanta computation exists " huge issue " , want ability of 21 centuries last years to mature truly.

Eventually die out

Add 100 benefit to consult a group (Ao Erci of · of analyst red of The Gabriel Consulting Group) (Dan Olds) says: "How is investigator designed in dug all the time and develop the problem of new material, try thereby brings higher performance with reasonable cost. We see, this kind of progress had permeated each corners of the market. Intel 3 grid transistor (Tri-Gate Transistor) is a very good example, it raised the interface of transistor to accumulate, improved performance below circumstance of power comsumption reductive 30% . Improved performance below circumstance of power comsumption reductive 30% ..

Intel released 3 grid transistor in newest Ivy Bridge chip, this company rolls out this kind of chip last month.

Charles of analyst of Pund-IT of industry analysis company · gold (Charles King) says, rub Er law may develop by convention, but he does not worry about this to will be caused to the evolution of computer industry why to plant influence. He points out: "You can argue say, this concept is colliding with the intractable obstacle photograph of physics. To finally, the law that basically can reflect oneself to be in times and place in great quantities will be not had can avoid the ground to become as the elapse of time illogical. " (Tang Feng)