American private branch invests second half of the year to will put delay

Xie Huijue

The key that American economy anabiosises still depends on in-house element.

On May 7, beautiful Yin Meilin develops the market is senior Hansen of · of economist Michael Er (Michael S. Hanson) expresses when accepting special report of our newspaper reporter: "American economy anabiosises in, it is most healthy that the balance sheet of private branch looks at present. But, as the end of the year arrives this year next year the beginning of the year a series of finance are constrictive of policy anticipate draw near ceaselessly, private branch predicts to will reduce major business act, this will drive economy to be in second half of the year is total show trend of be issued to lower levels. This will drive economy to be in second half of the year is total show trend of be issued to lower levels..

Hansen ever held the position of beautiful couplet store monetary work ministry economist, inaugural Yu Meilian store new York branch, couplet is in the beauty store the respect such as policy of monetary policy, budget and American economy model has research experience of more than 20 years.

Hansen is in answer dawn (small gain) the reporter is accepted to interview on the forum of EMBA new York that place of contact of alu the most popular brooch pins mnus of new York of university government institute and alumni association of Fudan University new York undertake.

History go up the most large-scale finance is constrictive the commerce that put delay is decision-making

Although short-term data stand or fall, but the market still is willing to believe American economy anabiosises to good. Beautiful couplet store the newest economy end April is forecasted in, will American economy added the attune on fast interval to be 2012 2.4% - 2.9% , predict to this year unemployment rate of four quarters United States will fall to 7.8% - 8% .

Dan Hansen's judgement is more pessimistic: "Short-term inside the positive signal that still has a lot of anabiosising, but anabiosis this already drove impossibly by consumer certainly. Arrive before the end of the year, not certain factor of economy is very much still, continueing to be down is total trend. Continueing to be down is total trend..

He points out, american economy anabiosises in have 3 big crucial factors, it is a labour market, 2 it is housing market, 3 it is credit market. Among them, what he worries most is housing market, this becomes the handicap that American economy anabiosises likely.

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Although the estate market of the specific area such as new York, Miami, san Francisco because of foreign investor swarm into and grow significantly, but the real-estate industry of area of American other majority whether already sole will rebound, still did not make clear evidence. And bal free memory laptop toshiba ance sheet of the bank after economic crisis got 2008 estate market is huge influence, affect the shadow that its borrow money to hypostatic economy directly thereby, still exist at present.

"More crucial is, the vast power that American economy urges to anabiosis before -- private branch will put the company the pace that its grow delay, major business decreases in second half of the year decision-making, include large-scale employ and investment item. " Hansen expresses, "The not certain factor inside 2013 is in immediate impact to people the commerce of seco most popular selling memory card digital cameras nd half of the year is decision-making 2012. "The not certain factor inside 2013 is in immediate impact to people the commerce of second half of the year is decision-making 2012..

The inaccuracy that Hansen says decides an element, basically be the draft resolution of reform of of all kinds finance that points to because of general election protracted make a decision.

ata pciThese pendent draft resolution, comprised Hansen place to say " finance cliff " (Fiscal Cliff) , the taxation of wage tax etc that the b the best selling memory laptop toshiba ush-administration period continuance that includes to be about to expire to the end of this year comes down cuts down policy to be lengthened whether possibly, the bill of the derate individual income tax that Aobama signs continues whether possibly after the end of the year expires, unemployed insurance is lengthened whether to expire, the finance expenditure related problem of processing debt upper limit is cut wait. These will be in the end of the year is become in succession to next year this year ginseng is numerous the focus that two courtyards argue.

According to computation, the finance that of correspondence of these draft resolution place is about 700 billion dollar is constrictive extent, 4.5% what occupy American GDP about. If these policy are able to pass, will be 1960 so scale is the largest since era the strictest finance is constrictive.

Hansen expresses, even if guards estimation, future is short-term inside free scooby costume the dimensions with constrictive finance also is in the 2% above of GDP.

"The risk that this brings is, it will offset the economy before this stimulates the effect of policy, the motivation of private branch is reduced from this. the best selling memory card digital cameras " he says, "Because people already saw in around of election of the end of the year finance has bigger uncertainty beforehand, and be clear that acknowledge reachs quick solution not easily to the discussion of these policy, accordingly this is in the influence to all and private branch the 3rd of all kinds commerce that spends with the four seasons is decision-making. Accordingly this is in the influence to all and private branch the 3rd of all kinds commerce that spends with the four seasons is decision-making..

He anticipates, private branch manages a layer not to hope to begin any large investment action inside this paragraph of time, hope however when the policy environment after general election is Anacreontic change, just make judgement.

Beautiful couplet store is QE3 to help straw?

Disturbed in general election finance policy spurs a necessary openly action to hypostatic economy when, the detain that the whole world anabiosises to American economy is noted, place entirely was in the beauty couplet store on the body.

"What second half of the year has stimulation exclusively to economy likely is beautiful couplet store farther loose policy. " Hansen expresses, "From the point of this respect, american monetary policy and finance policy run in the opposite direction at present really. American monetary policy and finance policy run in the opposite direction at present really..

The two beautiful couplet that Zhou Qian holds store conference of monetary policy monthly, did not transmit the signal of QE directly, but the market is current very rising still to the anticipation of the 3rd round of QE.

Hansen thinks, the QE1 that operates before beautiful couplet Chu Zhi and QE2 got better result, but the 400 billion t mobile prepaid cards dollar that will begin in September from last year turns round an operation to did not have too big effect, this already reminded beautiful couplet store official, turning round an operation is not right certainly.

"Beautiful couplet store the 3rd round of QE, its means should be more adjacent at QE1, quantify groovily namely comfortable. " he says, "With QE2 strong sell type to quantify comfortable and different is, this round buy possibly, should be national debt and the asset combination that by beauty of ground of Fang Limei, room place canon ef 15mm of etc estate orgnaization opposes some to mortgage loan supports negotiable securities to wait. Should be national debt and the asset combination that by beauty of ground of Fang Limei, room place of etc estate orgnaization opposes some to mortgage loan supports negotiable securities to wait..

He thinks, although beautiful couplet store the addition that is fond of the national debt capital fund that sees a balance sheet go up, but they realize at present the likelihood needs to do what a few other issues will help economy restore new cycle to spread out more.

"Beautiful couplet Chu Zheng is trying, not only hold the governmental assets of a few safety, and a few have hold relatively the debenture of the risk and stock, such support to hypostatic economy are directer, once capital shedding flows to these domains, so the behavior such as investment, employ with respect to can be expected soon. " he says.

Hansen thinks to divide outside turning round an operation, beautiful couplet store in control market confidence is mixed before this guide set inflation to anticipate go up to be done very outstandingly.

"Of course, I believe beautiful couplet store the official already realized at present, they cannot be become solve American economy growth to anabiosis the single way of the problem. This is not ball of a blackart, not be to settle the only way that at present economy challenges, those who need other policy cooperate. " Hansen says.